With just weeks left before Election Day, Joe Biden holds a commanding lead over President Donald Trump in national polling, just as Hillary Clinton did in the run-up to the 2016 election.
But polling doesn’t tell the whole story.
In fact, according to Trump’s campaign, another important election metric suggests that Trump may not be trailing Biden as badly as polls show — or even at all.
What are the details?
According to the Washington Examiner, Republicans have made significant strides in their voter registration efforts, indicating that grassroots support for the president may be greater than what the polls depict.
Traditionally, voter registration is dominated by the Democratic Party.
However, Trump’s campaign has made significant inroads in battleground states that will be key to winning the election, even flipping one state completely.
From the Washington Examiner:
In Pennsylvania, the Republican Party has sliced the Democrats’ dominance with registered voters by nearly 200,000 since Election Day 2016. The Republicans also made up ground in North Carolina, reducing the Democrats’ superiority among registered voters by 243,000 compared to four years ago. In Florida, the GOP chopped the Democratic advantage by 154,000. In Iowa, the Republicans turned a nearly 15,000 voter registration deficit on March 1 into a 13,000 lead on Thursday.
The Trump campaign told the Examiner that the numbers indicate grassroots enthusiasm for Trump’s reelection.
“Part of voter registration is simply harnessing enthusiasm,” said Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign’s director of battleground strategy. “There is a knock-down, drag-out part of registering voters, and it’s time-consuming. But you can’t register them if they’re not enthused about your party or your candidate.”
Some of those newly registered Republican voters could be voters who were previously registered Democrats, but had long voted for Republican candidates.
But Charlie Gerow, a Republican operative, told the Examiner that such circumstances do not explain the significant shift in Pennsylvania, for example.
“Some of these registrations are, in fact, Democrat crossovers from people who have been voting Republican for a while,” Gerow explained. “Many are new registrants as well as a significant number who are registering Republican specifically because of Donald Trump voter registration.”
What did the Democratic Party say?
The Democratic National Committee dismissed the development, pointing to the fact that Democrats still lead voter registration in battleground states overall. DNC spokesman David Bergstein also told the Examiner, “We are beating them in voter participation.”
What do the polls show?
Currently, Biden leads Trump nationally by an average whopping 9-point margin, greater than any lead Clinton had on Trump in the weeks before the 2016 election.
Ultimately, the margin between Clinton and Trump shrunk to just a few points, which reflected the popular vote margin of 2.1% in Clinton’s favor.
Author: Chris Enloe