President Trump passed Joe Biden in a measure of two critical swing states, Florida and Arizona, in a sign of the election tightening.
The ABC/Washington Post poll released Wednesday found that among likely voters in Arizona, Trump was 1 point ahead of the Democratic presidential nominee with 49% to Biden’s 48%.
Trump was 4 points ahead of Biden among likely voters in Florida, with 51% support to 47% for the former vice president.
Many election analysts believe that the election result in Florida, and its 29 Electoral College votes, could be the decisive factor that determines whether it is Trump or Biden who wins the presidential election.
The president lagged behind Biden in the results for only registered voters, a less-accurate measure of what the election result would be if it were held today. In Arizona, Trump had 47% to Biden’s 49% among registered voters, and in Florida, he had 47% to 48% for Biden.
The polls were conducted Sept. 15-20, which included two days of polling following the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday.
Results from Florida included responses from 765 Florida registered voters, including 613 likely voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points for registered voters ad 4.5% for the likely voter result. The Arizona result came from 701 registered voters, including 579 likely voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points for both the registered and likely voter measures.
The polls mark what could be a tightening in the race. Trump fared better in the two polls than he has in many other recent polls of the presidential contest in the two states. In Florida, a RealClearPolitics average of recent polls puts Biden at 1.5 points ahead of Trump, and its average for Arizona puts Biden 4.4 points ahead.
A release for the poll highlighted the importance of the coronavirus pandemic and the economy on voters’ presidential preferences, indicating that changes in either situation could tilt the election.
“As in the previous states and nationally, views of the economy’s condition and worries about catching the virus both independently predict candidate support, even controlling for partisanship, ideology and race/ethnicity,” read the poll release. “Were either economic or pandemic views to shift in the campaign’s closing weeks, the impact could be decisive.”
Author: Emily Larsen
Source: Washington Examiner: Trump takes lead over Biden in Florida and Arizona: Polls